Funda YILDIRIM BORAZAN
European Journal of Geriatrics and Gerontology - 2026;8(2):123-128
Objective: To evaluate the association between calf circumference and short-term prognosis in older adults receiving palliative care and to investigate the independent prognostic value of calf circumference. Materials and Methods: This retrospective, observational study included older adult patients who were admitted to a palliative care unit from January 2024 to December 2025. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, and calf circumference measurements were extracted from hospital records. The primary outcome was mortality within three months. Survivors and non-survivors were compared using appropriate statistical tests. Variables showing a p-value below 0.10 in the univariate analysis were incorporated into a multivariable logistic regression model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to evaluate the discriminative ability of calf circumference and to identify its optimal cut-off value for predicting mortality. Results: One hundred forty seven patients (median age: 79 years) were included; 72 (49.0%) died within 3 months. Non-survivors were older and had significantly lower calf circumference, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, elevated C-reactive protein concentrations, and reduced albumin levels. In multivariable logistic regression, calf circumference remained independently associated with mortality: each 1-cm increase was associated with a 15.5% reduction in mortality risk. ROC analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.707. A calf circumference cut-off of <=34 cm yielded 48.6% sensitivity and 86.6% specificity for predicting mortality. Conclusion: Calf circumference is independently associated with 3-month mortality in geriatric patients receiving palliative care. As a simple, inexpensive measurement that is applicable at the bedside, it may provide valuable prognostic information and support risk stratification in this vulnerable population.
