Mustafa ÖCAL
Eurasian Journal of Emergency Medicine - 2026;25(1):420-428
Aim: Heat-wave disasters are among the most lethal and rapidly escalating categories of natural hazards. Despite growing evidence of their increasing frequency and mortality burden, a comprehensive multi-decadal global assessment has been lacking. Materials and Methods: Using Emergency Events Database records from 1936 to 2024, we quantified heat-wave disaster frequency, mortality, and geographic distribution. Linear regression was applied to assess temporal trends at annual and decadal scales, and the Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn post-hoc analysis was used to compare per-event mortality across continents. Results: A total of 344 heat-wave disasters were recorded across 75 countries, resulting in 350,425 deaths. Europe recorded the highest number of events (n=184; 53.5%) and the overwhelming majority of fatalities (320,418 deaths; 91.4%), despite comprising predominantly high-income nations-a paradox driven by aging populations, low air-conditioning penetration, and urban heat island effects. India experienced the highest event frequency (n=32), while the Russian Federation recorded the highest mean deaths per disaster (18,677.3; n=3 events). Disaster frequency increased significantly over time (beta=0.170 events year -(1); p<0.001; R(2)=0.294), as did annual mortality (beta=204.1 deaths year -(1); p<0.001). Decadal aggregation revealed even stronger relationships (R(2)=0.725 and 0.592, respectively). May through August accounted for 87.8% of events and 98.4% of global deaths. Conclusion: Heat-wave disasters are intensifying in frequency and lethality globally. Urgent investment in early warning systems, equitable cooling infrastructure, and evidence-based climate adaptation policy is essential to reduce future heat-wave mortality.
