PREDICTING MORTALITY IN GASTROINTESTINAL BLEEDING: SERUM COPEPTIN LEVELS OR AGE, SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE AND SHOCK INDEX-A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY

Emrah AKIN, Alten OSKAY, Özgen KILIÇ ERKEK, Merve AKIN, Mert ÖZEN, Atakan YILMAZ, Murat SEYİT, Orhan Tamer EREREN, Melek Bor KÜÇÜKATAY, İbrahim TÜRKÇÜER

Eurasian Journal of Emergency Medicine - 2026;25(1):308-314

Servergazi State Hospital, Clinic of Emergency Medicine, Denizli, Türkiye

 

Aim: Vital signs, blood parameters, and some blood biomarkers in patients with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding vary depending on the severity of the bleeding. The aim of this study is to investigate the association of vital signs and copeptin levels with transfusion requirements, and patient prognosis, including hospitalization duration and 30-day mortality. Materials and Methods: Prospective, cross-sectional, observational study, conducted in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary care university hospital, between June 2021 and May 2022. Admission serum copeptin levels and vital parameters of patients with a diagnosis of GI bleeding were noted and evaluated in terms of outcome measures. Results: The study included 118 patients, 75 (63.6%) of whom were male. The median age was 72 years (interquartile range: 58-83). A total of 18 (15%) patients died within 30 days. Serum copeptin levels did not differ between deceased patients and survivors. Logistic regression analysis showed that a shock index above 0.70 and patients aged 75 years and older together [p=0.017, odds ratio (OR)=6.824; 95% confidence interval (CI): (1.419-32.811)] lead to an increase in 30-day mortality. Lower systolic blood pressure at the admission to the ED was associated with increased 30-day mortality [p=0.003, OR=0.952; 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.922-0.983)]. Conclusion: Although serum copeptin levels failed to predict 30-day mortality in patients admitted to the ED due to GI bleeding, our models demonstrated that age over 75 years, lower systolic blood pressure, and the shock index, were superior predictors of mortality.